宽基择时组合是一个实验性量化策略,使用简单的因子进行宽基指数择时投资,目标是寻找一种逻辑比较可靠、个人投资者可操作的策略。为方便跟踪策略效果和宽基交易信号,策略每日更新运行数据。
研究过程见: ① 宽基定投是圣杯吗 ② 宽基择时指标研究 ③ 宽基择时组合构建

回测收益率

以 2013 年 1 月 1 日为起点
Stat 无风险收益 沪深300 等权组合 宽基择时
Start 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03
End 2024-12-20 2024-12-20 2024-12-20 2024-12-20
Risk-free rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Return 62.78% 53.74% 97.67% 356.07%
Daily Sharpe 6.09 0.28 0.40 1.08
Daily Sortino 11.56 0.44 0.63 1.79
CAGR 4.16% 3.66% 5.86% 13.53%
Max Drawdown -0.84% -46.88% -43.90% -16.83%
Calmar Ratio 4.93 0.08 0.13 0.80
MTD 1.16% 1.74% 2.13% 1.37%
3m 1.71% 23.30% 22.78% 11.34%
6m 3.86% 11.68% 11.74% 9.75%
YTD 7.66% 15.41% 14.87% 18.25%
1Y 7.73% 18.06% 15.89% 17.84%
3Y (ann.) 5.10% -7.24% -3.43% 5.87%
5Y (ann.) 4.64% -0.47% 2.73% 10.15%
10Y (ann.) 4.30% 1.49% 3.10% 11.47%
Since Incep. (ann.) 4.16% 3.66% 5.86% 13.53%
Daily Sharpe 6.09 0.28 0.40 1.08
Daily Sortino 11.56 0.44 0.63 1.79
Daily Mean (ann.) 4.23% 6.48% 7.82% 13.99%
Daily Vol (ann.) 0.69% 23.42% 19.54% 12.92%
Daily Skew 0.03 -0.15 -0.06 0.02
Daily Kurt 18.05 10.44 14.30 10.71
Best Day 0.53% 15.68% 15.17% 6.73%
Worst Day -0.47% -11.12% -9.06% -6.84%
Monthly Sharpe 4.44 0.25 0.39 0.99
Monthly Sortino 20.01 0.45 0.66 2.27
Monthly Mean (ann.) 4.11% 5.56% 6.82% 13.11%
Monthly Vol (ann.) 0.92% 21.83% 17.48% 13.26%
Monthly Skew 0.10 0.18 -0.21 1.27
Monthly Kurt 1.01 3.30 3.49 8.19
Best Month 1.16% 25.68% 15.60% 18.74%
Worst Month -0.55% -24.04% -21.75% -15.84%
Yearly Sharpe 2.46 0.31 0.39 0.81
Yearly Sortino inf 0.80 0.99 15.48
Yearly Mean 4.31% 7.63% 7.38% 15.50%
Yearly Vol 1.75% 24.78% 18.90% 19.22%
Yearly Skew -0.06 0.30 -0.06 1.12
Yearly Kurt 1.66 -0.94 -1.33 0.28
Best Year 7.66% 51.16% 36.60% 54.64%
Worst Year 0.75% -25.53% -20.18% -2.87%
Avg. Drawdown -0.05% -6.61% -2.93% -2.32%
Avg. Drawdown Days 6.39 159.00 81.33 44.32
Avg. Up Month 0.39% 4.65% 3.87% 2.64%
Avg. Down Month -0.11% -4.16% -3.17% -1.70%
Win Year % 100.00% 54.55% 63.64% 81.82%
Win 12m % 99.25% 53.38% 61.65% 87.22%

仓位

多空信号 - 沪深300