宽基择时组合是一个实验性量化策略,使用简单的因子进行宽基指数择时投资,目标是寻找一种逻辑比较可靠、个人投资者可操作的策略。为方便跟踪策略效果和宽基交易信号,策略每日更新运行数据。
研究过程见: ① 宽基定投是圣杯吗 ② 宽基择时指标研究 ③ 宽基择时组合构建

回测收益率

以 2013 年 1 月 1 日为起点
Stat 无风险收益 沪深300 等权组合 宽基择时
Start 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03
End 2025-02-26 2025-02-26 2025-02-26 2025-02-26
Risk-free rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Return 63.91% 53.52% 97.12% 360.47%
Daily Sharpe 6.00 0.27 0.40 1.08
Daily Sortino 11.43 0.44 0.63 1.78
CAGR 4.15% 3.59% 5.75% 13.40%
Max Drawdown -0.84% -46.88% -43.90% -16.83%
Calmar Ratio 4.92 0.08 0.13 0.80
MTD -0.06% 2.47% 2.33% 1.18%
3m 1.97% 2.49% 2.55% 2.42%
6m 3.26% 18.02% 19.13% 13.08%
YTD 0.38% -1.60% -1.30% 0.78%
1Y 6.93% 12.79% 12.21% 12.73%
3Y (ann.) 4.97% -4.85% -1.70% 6.18%
5Y (ann.) 4.54% -0.69% 1.71% 8.88%
10Y (ann.) 4.22% 1.24% 2.57% 10.95%
Since Incep. (ann.) 4.15% 3.59% 5.75% 13.40%
Daily Sharpe 6.00 0.27 0.40 1.08
Daily Sortino 11.43 0.44 0.63 1.78
Daily Mean (ann.) 4.23% 6.39% 7.70% 13.88%
Daily Vol (ann.) 0.70% 23.33% 19.47% 12.85%
Daily Skew 0.06 -0.15 -0.06 0.02
Daily Kurt 17.08 10.46 14.31 10.83
Best Day 0.53% 15.68% 15.17% 6.73%
Worst Day -0.47% -11.12% -9.06% -6.84%
Monthly Sharpe 4.31 0.25 0.39 0.99
Monthly Sortino 20.09 0.44 0.66 2.26
Monthly Mean (ann.) 4.11% 5.48% 6.71% 13.01%
Monthly Vol (ann.) 0.95% 21.73% 17.42% 13.18%
Monthly Skew 0.38 0.18 -0.21 1.28
Monthly Kurt 2.05 3.32 3.49 8.33
Best Month 1.48% 25.68% 15.60% 18.74%
Worst Month -0.55% -24.04% -21.75% -15.84%
Yearly Sharpe 1.93 0.29 0.37 0.76
Yearly Sortino inf 0.76 0.94 14.84
Yearly Mean 4.01% 7.00% 6.75% 14.29%
Yearly Vol 2.08% 23.84% 18.24% 18.82%
Yearly Skew -0.10 0.39 0.06 1.25
Yearly Kurt 0.72 -0.73 -1.22 0.61
Best Year 7.99% 51.16% 36.60% 54.64%
Worst Year 0.38% -25.53% -20.18% -2.87%
Avg. Drawdown -0.05% -6.61% -2.93% -2.28%
Avg. Drawdown Days 6.44 161.52 82.63 44.07
Avg. Up Month 0.39% 4.64% 3.86% 2.63%
Avg. Down Month -0.11% -4.15% -3.18% -1.68%
Win Year % 100.00% 50.00% 58.33% 83.33%
Win 12m % 99.26% 54.07% 62.22% 87.41%

仓位

多空信号 - 沪深300

多空信号 - 上证50

多空信号 - 中证500

多空信号 - 创业板

多空信号 - 上证红利