宽基择时组合是一个实验性量化策略,使用简单的因子进行宽基指数择时投资,目标是寻找一种逻辑比较可靠、个人投资者可操作的策略。为方便跟踪策略效果和宽基交易信号,策略每日更新运行数据。
研究过程见: ① 宽基定投是圣杯吗 ② 宽基择时指标研究 ③ 宽基择时组合构建

回测收益率

以 2013 年 1 月 1 日为起点
Stat 无风险收益 沪深300 等权组合 宽基择时
Start 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03
End 2025-02-07 2025-02-07 2025-02-07 2025-02-07
Risk-free rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Return 64.58% 50.10% 93.03% 356.72%
Daily Sharpe 6.11 0.27 0.39 1.08
Daily Sortino 11.73 0.43 0.61 1.78
CAGR 4.20% 3.41% 5.59% 13.38%
Max Drawdown -0.84% -46.88% -43.90% -16.83%
Calmar Ratio 4.98 0.07 0.13 0.80
MTD 0.34% 0.18% 0.21% 0.36%
3m 2.82% -3.59% -2.58% 1.16%
6m 3.89% 15.12% 15.48% 11.36%
YTD 0.79% -3.79% -3.35% -0.04%
1Y 7.66% 15.97% 15.28% 14.67%
3Y (ann.) 5.16% -6.06% -2.41% 6.36%
5Y (ann.) 4.62% -0.18% 2.34% 9.81%
10Y (ann.) 4.31% 1.52% 2.84% 11.50%
Since Incep. (ann.) 4.20% 3.41% 5.59% 13.38%
Daily Sharpe 6.11 0.27 0.39 1.08
Daily Sortino 11.73 0.43 0.61 1.78
Daily Mean (ann.) 4.28% 6.22% 7.55% 13.87%
Daily Vol (ann.) 0.70% 23.37% 19.50% 12.87%
Daily Skew 0.09 -0.15 -0.06 0.02
Daily Kurt 17.36 10.44 14.29 10.80
Best Day 0.53% 15.68% 15.17% 6.73%
Worst Day -0.47% -11.12% -9.06% -6.84%
Monthly Sharpe 4.38 0.24 0.38 0.98
Monthly Sortino 20.31 0.43 0.64 2.25
Monthly Mean (ann.) 4.14% 5.29% 6.53% 12.94%
Monthly Vol (ann.) 0.95% 21.73% 17.41% 13.18%
Monthly Skew 0.38 0.19 -0.20 1.29
Monthly Kurt 2.15 3.33 3.50 8.33
Best Month 1.48% 25.68% 15.60% 18.74%
Worst Month -0.55% -24.04% -21.75% -15.84%
Yearly Sharpe 2.01 0.29 0.36 0.75
Yearly Sortino inf 0.75 0.93 14.79
Yearly Mean 4.05% 6.82% 6.58% 14.22%
Yearly Vol 2.01% 23.92% 18.34% 18.87%
Yearly Skew 0.03 0.41 0.08 1.24
Yearly Kurt 0.70 -0.76 -1.26 0.59
Best Year 7.99% 51.16% 36.60% 54.64%
Worst Year 0.75% -25.53% -20.18% -2.87%
Avg. Drawdown -0.05% -6.61% -2.93% -2.32%
Avg. Drawdown Days 6.44 160.81 82.27 44.85
Avg. Up Month 0.39% 4.61% 3.83% 2.62%
Avg. Down Month -0.11% -4.15% -3.18% -1.68%
Win Year % 100.00% 50.00% 58.33% 75.00%
Win 12m % 99.26% 54.07% 62.22% 87.41%

仓位

多空信号 - 沪深300