宽基择时组合是一个实验性量化策略,使用简单的因子进行宽基指数择时投资,目标是寻找一种逻辑比较可靠、个人投资者可操作的策略。为方便跟踪策略效果和宽基交易信号,策略每日更新运行数据。
研究过程见: ① 宽基定投是圣杯吗 ② 宽基择时指标研究 ③ 宽基择时组合构建

回测收益率

以 2013 年 1 月 1 日为起点
Stat 无风险收益 沪深300 等权组合 宽基择时
Start 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03
End 2024-10-09 2024-10-09 2024-10-09 2024-10-09
Risk-free rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Return 59.24% 62.77% 104.76% 355.61%
Daily Sharpe 6.00 0.30 0.42 1.10
Daily Sortino 11.19 0.48 0.67 1.81
CAGR 4.03% 4.23% 6.28% 13.76%
Max Drawdown -0.84% -46.88% -43.90% -16.83%
Calmar Ratio 4.78 0.09 0.14 0.82
MTD -0.23% 8.37% 8.57% 5.50%
3m 1.37% 22.70% 20.35% 11.82%
6m 3.22% 17.96% 15.33% 10.45%
YTD 5.32% 22.18% 18.99% 18.13%
1Y 6.03% 13.30% 13.12% 17.74%
3Y (ann.) 4.56% -5.51% -2.19% 5.67%
5Y (ann.) 4.30% 1.75% 4.49% 11.07%
10Y (ann.) 4.20% 5.32% 5.48% 14.02%
Since Incep. (ann.) 4.03% 4.23% 6.28% 13.76%
Daily Sharpe 6.00 0.30 0.42 1.10
Daily Sortino 11.19 0.48 0.67 1.81
Daily Mean (ann.) 4.11% 7.03% 8.22% 14.23%
Daily Vol (ann.) 0.69% 23.33% 19.46% 12.98%
Daily Skew -0.05 -0.17 -0.07 0.02
Daily Kurt 19.05 10.75 14.74 10.68
Best Day 0.53% 15.68% 15.17% 6.73%
Worst Day -0.47% -11.12% -9.06% -6.84%
Monthly Sharpe 4.42 0.28 0.41 0.99
Monthly Sortino 18.36 0.49 0.70 2.28
Monthly Mean (ann.) 3.98% 6.15% 7.24% 13.29%
Monthly Vol (ann.) 0.90% 22.10% 17.74% 13.40%
Monthly Skew -0.10 0.17 -0.20 1.25
Monthly Kurt 0.86 3.10 3.25 7.88
Best Month 1.07% 25.68% 15.60% 18.74%
Worst Month -0.55% -24.04% -21.75% -15.84%
Yearly Sharpe 2.89 0.33 0.41 0.81
Yearly Sortino inf 0.86 1.04 15.47
Yearly Mean 4.10% 8.24% 7.75% 15.49%
Yearly Vol 1.42% 25.07% 19.10% 19.22%
Yearly Skew -1.12 0.22 -0.11 1.13
Yearly Kurt 2.58 -1.11 -1.42 0.29
Best Year 6.09% 51.16% 36.60% 54.64%
Worst Year 0.75% -25.53% -20.18% -2.87%
Avg. Drawdown -0.05% -6.61% -2.93% -2.29%
Avg. Drawdown Days 6.35 156.33 79.94 43.53
Avg. Up Month 0.38% 4.79% 3.97% 2.70%
Avg. Down Month -0.12% -4.21% -3.22% -1.70%
Win Year % 100.00% 54.55% 63.64% 81.82%
Win 12m % 99.24% 52.67% 61.07% 87.02%

仓位

多空信号 - 沪深300