宽基择时组合是一个实验性量化策略,使用简单的因子进行宽基指数择时投资,目标是寻找一种逻辑比较可靠、个人投资者可操作的策略。为方便跟踪策略效果和宽基交易信号,策略每日更新运行数据。
研究过程见: ① 宽基定投是圣杯吗 ② 宽基择时指标研究 ③ 宽基择时组合构建

回测收益率

以 2013 年 1 月 1 日为起点
Stat 无风险收益 沪深300 等权组合 宽基择时
Start 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03 2013-01-03
End 2024-09-10 2024-09-10 2024-09-10 2024-09-10
Risk-free rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Return 59.14% 24.73% 61.08% 307.43%
Daily Sharpe 6.13 0.20 0.32 1.04
Daily Sortino 11.71 0.31 0.49 1.68
CAGR 4.06% 1.91% 4.16% 12.77%
Max Drawdown -0.84% -46.88% -43.90% -16.83%
Calmar Ratio 4.81 0.04 0.09 0.76
MTD 0.25% -2.45% -1.63% 0.12%
3m 1.83% -11.15% -10.37% -2.52%
6m 3.36% -9.51% -9.30% -1.17%
YTD 5.26% -6.37% -6.40% 5.64%
1Y 6.18% -14.77% -11.61% 5.51%
3Y (ann.) 4.64% -13.68% -10.42% 0.70%
5Y (ann.) 4.34% -4.29% -1.20% 7.86%
10Y (ann.) 4.25% 2.74% 3.24% 13.08%
Since Incep. (ann.) 4.06% 1.91% 4.16% 12.77%
Daily Sharpe 6.13 0.20 0.32 1.04
Daily Sortino 11.71 0.31 0.49 1.68
Daily Mean (ann.) 4.12% 4.54% 5.99% 13.29%
Daily Vol (ann.) 0.67% 22.63% 18.71% 12.82%
Daily Skew 0.11 -0.67 -0.85 -0.18
Daily Kurt 19.50 7.00 7.64 9.76
Best Day 0.53% 8.12% 6.25% 5.46%
Worst Day -0.47% -11.12% -9.06% -6.84%
Monthly Sharpe 4.52 0.18 0.30 0.93
Monthly Sortino 19.29 0.30 0.50 2.12
Monthly Mean (ann.) 4.00% 3.77% 5.11% 12.40%
Monthly Vol (ann.) 0.88% 21.49% 17.13% 13.31%
Monthly Skew -0.05 0.12 -0.33 1.31
Monthly Kurt 0.96 3.44 3.59 8.34
Best Month 1.07% 25.68% 15.60% 18.74%
Worst Month -0.55% -24.04% -21.75% -15.84%
Yearly Sharpe 2.90 0.23 0.28 0.74
Yearly Sortino inf 0.61 0.75 14.34
Yearly Mean 4.09% 5.65% 5.45% 14.35%
Yearly Vol 1.41% 24.96% 19.14% 19.42%
Yearly Skew -1.13 0.56 0.27 1.29
Yearly Kurt 2.64 -0.82 -1.38 0.54
Best Year 6.09% 51.16% 36.60% 54.64%
Worst Year 0.75% -25.53% -20.18% -2.87%
Avg. Drawdown -0.04% -6.61% -2.93% -2.30%
Avg. Drawdown Days 6.32 155.26 79.38 43.79
Avg. Up Month 0.38% 4.56% 3.75% 2.60%
Avg. Down Month -0.11% -4.19% -3.20% -1.70%
Win Year % 100.00% 45.45% 54.55% 81.82%
Win 12m % 99.23% 51.54% 60.00% 86.92%

仓位

多空信号 - 沪深300